Curious about where Real Estate is headed over the next 11 months? TRREBs latest data and predictions are here! The headline reads: “GTA Home Sales and Prices Expected to Remain Stable in 2026 Amid Ongoing Affordability Pressures”.
Here’s the press release for the Toronto Real Estate Board’s analysis for January 2026 with graphics courtesy of Market Watch, as well as their 2026 Market Outlook & Year In Review:
TORONTO, ONTARIO, FEBRUARY 5, 2026 – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) ‘2026 Market Outlook and Year in Review’ report highlights a housing market shaped by improved buyer choice and affordability, alongside cautious consumer sentiment across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).
The report finds that elevated supply levels are expected to keep price growth in check through 2026, while overall home sales activity is forecast to remain within a similar range compared to the last three years, with the potential for improvement later in the year if the economy remains resilient and consumer confidence strengthens.
This year’s sought-after report and interactive digital digest include new Ipsos consumer polling results, insights into homebuying intentions, and TRREB’s outlook on home sales and average prices, alongside research examining housing supply, migration, and affordability pressures across the region.
For 2026, TRREB forecasts:
- GTA home sales will range between 60,000 and 70,000 transactions. Market activity in the first half of the year is expected to resemble 2025 levels, as many households remain cautious about committing to long-term mortgage payments. If economic prospects and consumer confidence improve in the second half of the year, pent-up demand from the past several years could begin to be satisfied.
- The GTA average price forecast range for 2026 is between $1 million and $1.03 million. Elevated inventory levels across most market segments are expected to continue providing buyers with substantial negotiating power, particularly in the condominium apartment market. Average selling prices will likely be lower year-over-year in the first half of 2026 before stabilizing in the second half, if buyers start moving off the sidelines and market conditions tighten.
The Ipsos Home Buyers Survey found that GTA homebuying intentions for 2026 declined by five percentage points compared to 2025, to 22 per cent, despite improved affordability. This highlights challenges with consumer confidence vis-à-vis current economic uncertainty.
Despite softer overall buying intentions, first-time buyers could be a key driver of recovery in the months ahead. Ipsos polling shows that 45 per cent of intending homebuyers in 2026 will be first-time buyers, underscoring the importance of attainable ownership options.
Ipsos research also points to sustained rental demand across the GTA in 2026, supported in part by continued immigration, with many newcomer households renting before transitioning into homeownership.
Despite improved affordability in the homeownership market, Ipsos found that renter households face a gap of nearly $600 per month between affordable mortgage payments and the mortgage payments required to purchase the type of home they want. This affordability gap may result in many households remaining in the rental market longer than anticipated.
” The housing market reflects the tension many households are feeling as we look ahead to 2026. Affordability has improved, but uncertainty continues to weigh on long term decisions like homeownership. Greater economic clarity in the months ahead could restore confidence and help unlock demand that has been building for several years,” said TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld.
“With the cost of borrowing flattening out, affordability gains in 2026 will largely be seen on the pricing front, as buyers continue to benefit from negotiating power. A boost in consumer confidence could see buyers move off the sidelines later this year, which could provide support for home prices as market conditions tighten up,” said TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer.
The report also includes new research examining the impacts of population growth and migration, traffic congestion, and policy challenges affecting housing delivery across the region, along with recommendations aimed at addressing planning delays, development costs, and barriers within Ontario’s housing and infrastructure systems.
“At TRREB, we focus on actions that can make the greatest impact,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele. “That means pursuing innovative, future-facing solutions, including planning systems that approve building housing more efficiently, a tax environment that supports affordability, and a long-term commitment to purpose-built rental construction. These elements help create a balanced and predictable housing market, and this increases consumer confidence.”
The ‘2026 Market Outlook and Year in Review’ report covers all aspects of the GTA real estate market, including trends for new homes and condominiums, as well as a review of the commercial real estate market.
TRREB is also released January 2026 statistics and its latest monthly Market Watch publication.
There were 3,082 home sales reported in January 2026 – down by 19.3 per cent compared to January 2025. New listings entered into the MLS® System amounted to 10,774 – down by 13.3 per cent year-over-year.
The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) Composite benchmark was down by eight per cent year-over-year in January 2026. The average selling price, at $973,289, was down by 6.5 per cent compared to January 2025.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, January 2026 home sales were down month-over-month compared to December 2025, while new listings were up slightly. Both the MLS® HPI composite and average price trended lower compared to December.
Since 1989, I’ve steered my career through a real estate market crash and burn; survived a slow painful cross-country recession; completed an M.E.S. graduate degree from York University called ‘Planning Housing Environments’; executed the concept, sales & marketing of multiple new condo and vintage loft conversions; and guided hundreds of clients through the purchase and sale of hundreds of freehold and condominium dwellings across the original City of Toronto. From a gritty port industrial city into a glittering post-industrial global centre, I’ve navigated the ebbs and flows of a property market as a consistent Top Producer. And I remain as passionate about it today as when I started.
Please consider contacting me at 416-845-9905 or emailing me at Steve@urbaneer.com. It would be my pleasure to assist you.
We’d love to introduce you to our services.
Serving first-time Buyers, upsizers, downsizers, and people building their long-term property portfolios, our mandate is to help clients choose the property that will deliver the highest future return on their investment while ensuring it best serves their practical needs and their dream of “Home” during their ownership.
Are you considering selling? We welcome providing you with a comprehensive assessment free of charge, including determining your Buyer profile, optimizing your return on investment, and tailoring the listing process to your circumstances. Check out How Urbaneer’s Custom Marketing Program Sold This Family-Friendly Home In Riverdale to learn more about what we do!
Consider letting Urbaneer guide you through your Buying or Selling process, without pressure or hassle.
We are here to help!
-The Urbaneer Team
Steven Fudge, Sales Representative
& The Innovative Urbaneer Team
Bosley Real Estate Ltd., Brokerage – (416) 322-800
– we’re here to earn your trust, then your business –
Celebrating Thirty-Five Years As A Top-Producing Toronto Realtor
*Did you know we were recently listed as one of The Top 60 Best Toronto Blogs & Websites? And we earned the #5 spot on Feedspot’s Top 30 Toronto Real Estate Blogs & Websites’ List!
Consider signing up in the box below to receive our FREE monthly e-newsletter on housing, culture, and design, including our love for unique urban homes and other Toronto real estate!
*Love Canadian Housing? Check out Steve’s University Student Mentorship site called Canadian Real Estate, Housing & Home, which focuses on architecture, landscape, design, products, and real estate in Canada!