Welcome to my blog on housing, culture and design in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. I’m Steve Fudge, and I’ve been a realtor and housing consultant for over 35 years. Let the truth be told.
Four years ago, the Toronto real estate market peaked, and it’s been in a bumpy decline ever since. For many property owners, they’re only just coming to grips with the new real estate landscape. What they’re discovering is that the market’s prognosis may not improve anytime soon. In fact, it may be getting worse. This isn’t limited to the real estate market, however. Canadians have valid concerns about the imminent expiration of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), the unrelenting cost-of-living increases, particularly for food and fuel, that are hitting every pocketbook, and the heightened uncertainty created by matters of war, sovereignty and global order. All of these factors are weighing on the psyche of consumers and dampening the trade of real estate
In early January, the Toronto Star article ‘List In The New Year And Sell By Spring.’ Toronto-Area Home Prices Are Set To Drop In 2026 — And Could Wipe Out Six Years Of Price Gains‘ had a headline that wasn’t just attention-grabbing, it was shouting the truth: property prices are rolling back to pre-pandemic values (that it implied prices had gone up for the past 6 years, however, was both attention-grabbing and a misnomer.
For the small percentage of prospective purchasers who don’t own property, can afford one, and would like to buy, a market where values are dropping is indeed favourable. Convincing them to pull the trigger on one of the largest purchases they’ll ever make, however, is only going to happen when the data indicates market conditions are improving, or the Buyers are sufficiently motivated to act now (ie: a new job requires relocating, a new relationship/pregnancy/an extended family member moving in requires more space, a Forever Home they’ve always coveted comes to market), With property prices in decline for 12 consecutive months, pulling the trigger on a purchase has become a very personal decision. No longer is the FOMO that fueled prices and sales to record-setting levels in 2021 feeding the fire. In fact, the 127,313 sales in 2021 slumped to a 25-year low in 2025 with just 62,433 sales, despite a growing population.
Acting on a purchase when most Buyers are sitting on the sidelines might be considered counterintuitive. Most Toronto parents would question this decision; the majority of one’s social world would whisper they’re making a mistake. Even a boss might say, “Srsly?” leading one to reconsider their job security. In today’s market, buying real estate is not for the faint of heart or risk-averse.
For anyone who owns property, these market conditions are not only disconcerting, they’re shattering dreams. For 3 generations, if you played it safe, buying real estate was a guaranteed path to financial freedom. If you could cobble together a 5% down payment plus closing costs, your future was thought to be set. The possibility that one could find themselves drowning in carrying costs because interest rates rose, paying for a mortgage that exceeded the current value of one’s property, would have seemed preposterous a few short years ago. But it’s true for many homeowners right now.
The fallout of a correcting real estate market usually starts with the most highly leveraged. Often, these are the people directly engaged in the real estate market, such as contractors who flip properties, mortgage brokers who offer private funding, and realtors who start to think it’s easy. For these people, and everyone else suffering under our current conditions, they took the risk, gambled, and things didn’t go as planned. Sometimes it’s because greed got in the way, but more often it’s because excessive optimism fueled the market, leaving prices detached from fundamentals. When an unanticipated catalyst – like the Bank of Canada rapidly increasing interest rates in 2022 to bring inflation down – forces a reassessment of risk, once that consciousness translates into media headlines, market sentiment is flipped. And because real estate is built of bricks and mortar, and presale condominiums are purchased four years before completion, extracting oneself is not as easy as selling stocks on an electronic ledger.
In this post, I’m using two power-of-sale properties located on the same street near College and Dovercourt to illustrate how they unwittingly represent our broader “unhinged” market correction. I do not know any of the players involved in these properties, so this assessment does not reflect what specifically occurred at these addresses. Instead, these sales illustrate how a shifting market can affect a prime, in-demand downtown location, forcing lenders to seize assets due to a mortgage default.
First, here’s an essential read –> Everything You Need To Know About Property Under Power Of Sale In Toronto
– 61 Shannon Street –
– Purchased in June 2019 for $2,050,000
– Renovation completed Spring 2023
– Listed 5 times on MLS starting in January 2023 at $5,398,880 and selling in February 2024 for $2,800,000 (under Power Of Sale)
*The property was listed on MLS for a total of 296 days, selling for 52% of its initial asking price
Here’s the full listing history:
– SOLD in June 2019 – $2,050,000
— Renovation —
– Listed in Jan 2023 – $5,398,880
– Re-Listed in April 2023 – $4,988,800
– Re-Listed in June 2023 – $4,589,999
– Re-Listed in Jan 2024 under Power of Sale – $3,599,900
– SOLD FIRM on Feb 20, 2024 under Power of Sale – $2,800,000
Located a block south of College Street, just west of Ossington Avenue, this 2-storey detached Victorian, constructed in 1900, sat on a generous 30 x 117-foot lot with a private driveway. The property, which was on a former ravine, meant the basement had a walk-out to the back yard and overlooked the grounds of Ossington/Old Orchard Junior Public School (OOOPS). A basement with a walk-out and an unobstructed sightline are both desirable qualities in real estate, because the lower level feels less like a basement when flooded with natural light and having no neighbours behind you means increased privacy. The previous owners purchased the property for $978,000 in December 2014, so garnering a price of $2,050,000 just 4 and a 1/2 years later would have been considered a windfall.
Here Are Pictures When The Property Previously Sold On MLS In 2014:
This house was gutted and substantially rebuilt. A third floor was added by punching up the roof, creating a luxe primary suite. The lower level had a decent ceiling height, but it may have been money well spent to dig it down. Nevertheless, it was finished to a high standard, including a sauna, a kitchenette and a gas fireplace. Style-wise, it was consistent with the other levels. Once finished, the house was about 2190 square feet plus a lower level of 995 square feet. The former garage was converted into a 1-bedroom Accessory Dwelling Unit, but the bedroom was accessed via a steep stair to a loft that was too low to enter. One had to effectively crawl to get into bed. I suspect that because the lower-level and ADU were being sold without warranty, meaning they were not legally permitted as separate units (the former garage was labelled Storage on the permit drawings), they weren’t promoted as much as one might have expected. Before the property was listed as a Power Of Sale, no floor plans were available on MLS, which I thought was unusual.
Here are some images Post-Renovation (Jan 2023):
The interior fixtures and finishes are in a Modern Contemporary Style, a fusion of the “form follows function” principle of modernism and the current trend toward monochromatic palettes, statement lighting, and high-end materials. Given that modernism grew out of a rejection of opulent, historical, and unnecessary elitist ornamentation in favour of material honesty and engineering, which, post-WWII, focused on practical, cost-effective, functional design, today’s Modern Contemporary Style is ironically filled with status markers. In this dwelling, the monolithic waterfall island and glossy fireplace cladding signal no expense has been spared, the abundant use of wood plastic composite 3D fluted wall panels and recessed LED lighting in the ceilings illustrate the property’s Instagram-worthy latest trend status, while the vertical wine wall beckons one to drink the non-temperature-controlled libation before it’s too late.
Although I’m a little saddened that the original dwelling lost its character and charm, this is what progress looks like in Toronto. If I had to identify the two factors that may have hindered the sale of this specific property, the first is that from the street, the dwelling never looked like a $5 million house. It was too demure, presenting as 2-storeys when it was effectively four. The second is that this version of Modern Contemporary Styling is certainly trending, but I’m not sure Torontonians have fully caught up to this aesthetic. Affluent Torontonians are predominantly mature, conservative, and lean towards understated classic. The interior of this house was very in-the-moment and perhaps a little too blingy, which may have alienated a segment of the target market.
If you Google this address, you can find a video of the property that shows much more than I’ve described.
– 22 Shannon Street –
– Purchased in October 2020 (closed February 2021) for $1,900,000
– Renovation completed Spring 2023
– Listed 11 times on MLS – starting in April 2023 at $5,125,000 and selling in May 2025 for $3,800,000.
* This property was active on MLS for 516 days over 2 years, and sold for 26% below its original asking price.
Here’s the full history:
– SOLD in Oct 2020 – $1,900,000
– Listed in April 2023 – $5,125,000
– Listed in May 2023 – $4,888,000
– Price Change in June 2023 – $4,685,000
– Listed in October 2023 – $4,850,000
– Listed in May 2024 – $4,875,000
– Listed in July 2024 – $4,868,000
– Listed in Sept 2024 – $4,868,000
– Listed in October 2024 under Power of Sale – $4,350,000
– Listed in Nov 2024 under Power of Sale – $ 4,199,000
– Listed in Jan 2025 under Power of Sale – $3,995,000
– SOLD FIRM on May 22, 2025, under Power of Sale – $3,800,000
Located a block south of College Street, just west of Ossington Avenue, this 2.5-storey detached Victorian constructed in 1900 with a later 2-storey extension totals 2800sf above grade with nearly 1100sf on the lower level. Sitting on a generous 25 x 121 foot lot with 3-car laneway parking, the Sellers, who had purchased the property for $770,000 in 2009, converted the property from four to five non-conforming units. At the time of sale. the two compact 1-bed basement suites were renting for $884 and $995 per month, the 1000sf 1-bed main floor suite for $1628 per month, the 790sf 2=bed second floor suite for $1470 per month, and the 895sf 2-bed second/third floor unit for $1755 per month – all inclusive of utilities with the three above-grade units each having exclusive use of a surface parking space.
Here are some photos of the property when it was sold pre-renovation in October 2020:
The Buyer undertook a dramatic, substantial renovation, which included digging out and underpinning the basement to have 8-foot ceilings, structurally reinforcing the shell and reconfiguring the space plan into 4+1 bedrooms with 4.5 baths, which included demolishing the original ‘tucked under the eaves’ bedrooms and replacing it with a third-floor primary suite with 9-foot ceilings and a generous terrace. Every building component was replaced to a high standard, luxe fixtures and fittings were installed, including herringbone floors, custom millwork and mouldings, an Italian kitchen & closets, custom stairs & railings, the exterior masonry was restored or rebuilt, and a 2-car garage plus substantial exterior hardscaping and plantings were completed. All done, the house had a total of 3026 square feet above grade + 1087 square feet in the lower level.
Here are some photos of the property Post-Renovation (April 2023):
I don’t know if you, dear reader, will agree, given there aren’t many photos to make a decision from, but if you Google the address, you can find a video of the property that shows much more than I’ve described. Personally, I thought the transformation of this property was superb. The design, materials, and execution were intelligent, bespoke, and near perfect. This dwelling also reflects Modern Contemporary Styling, but its success is in part due to the original house being a much grander Victorian than the dwelling down the street. It was larger, wider and had higher ceilings. The execution was more comprehensive, it had better curb appeal, and the fixtures and finishes were of a higher quality. Furthermore, the house had some classic details like panelling and stone fireplace mantels, which made it more elegant than flashy. It was also over 800 square feet larger than 61 Shannon, and included a new 2-car garage.
This house did sell for $1,000,000 more than its competitor down the street. If I had to identify what hindered the sale of this specific property, I think the Seller relied too heavily on 61 Shannon Street in deciding how much to list the property for. The two renovators effectively found themselves pitted against each other, chasing the market down while ignoring what similar dwellings surrounding them were selling for. I’m not sure how much they invested in this property, but it’s feasible that the buying, renovation and selling costs were as much as the $1,900,000 acquisition price.
Most people underestimate the challenges renovators face when buying a property for the express purpose of renovating it for resale. Time costs money, so efficiency and timeliness are required, and a pandemic is problematic. Unanticipated deficiencies push costs up, delay getting permits issued and then signed off, pull profit down, and if you’re committed to quality, you’re crossing your fingers that a Buyer will be willing to pay for the added value of integrity. And, of course, a renovator is at the whims of a market, so if it turns, you may be sunk.
Here’s a line graph tracking the price changes of both 22 Shannon & 61 Shannon from 2019 to 2025:
Three Nearby Sales That Reflect Market Values When 61 Shannon & 22 Shanon Were Listed In Spring 2023
The definition of market value in real estate is essentially the amount a Buyer is willing to pay and the sum a Seller is willing to accept at a given moment, based on how the subject property compares to dwellings of similar size, condition, and location that have recently sold.
Given that the two Shannons were listed in March 2023 for $5,398,880 (61 Shannon) and in April 2023 for $5,125,000 (22 Shannon), I’ve included three comparable sales that occurred around the same time to illustrate where values were landing. The Sellers of the two Shannons must have been aware of these sales as they did reduce their prices after these houses sold, but not significantly enough to secure a sale.
For those intimately familiar with real estate values in MLS C01, like I am, the Shannon listings fall under the MLS Community called Trinity-Bellwoods, as does 104 Argyle below. Most long-time locals wouldn’t consider these properties to be in Trinity-Bellwoods. Because these properties are located west of Ossington, locals would be more likely to say the Shannon dwellings are in Little Portugal (which MLS identifies as properties located west of Dovercourt), and the Argyle property is in Beaconsfield Village (a neighbourhood in existence since the 1880s, which doesn’t exist according to MLS). Furthermore, the listing at 306 Euclid below, according to the MLS, is considered to be in Trinity-Bellwoods, whereas many residents would consider it to be in Palmerston-Little Italy, the community where 516 Markham is located.
306 Euclid Avenue:
Listed March 2023: $4,500,000
Relisted April 2023: $4,390,000
SOLD May 2023: $4,200,000
This detached property was newly constructed in 2023, meaning the owners – who paid $1,690,000 in March 2021 for the teardown – paid the astronomical development charges of $93,978 when they could have left one basement wall and called it a substantial renovation. The property has 2675 square feet above grade, plus a lower level of 1022 square feet. The residence was on a 20 x 127-foot lot with a 500-square-foot 2-car garage with laneway access. The property had 4+1 bedrooms, 4.5 washrooms, and was fitted with quality fixtures and fittings. The aesthetic included some more traditional details, such as coffered ceilings and mosaic floors. Most realtors would deem this house’s location superior to the dwellings on Shannon.
This house was about 400 square feet smaller than 22 Shannon and 400 square feet larger than 61 Shannon, so perhaps optimism prevailed for those Sellers, rather than prudence.
516 Markham Street:
Listed in December 2022 and again in February 2023: $4,780,000
SOLD February 2023: $4,600,000
Located a block south of Bloor Street, one street west of Barthurst, this detached residence was purchased in August 2017 for $2,285,000 (the highest acquisition price of the sales). Dating from 1900, the dwelling was on a generous 33 x 125-foot lot (the largest of the sales) with a right-of-way to parking. Featuring 2576 square feet above grade with a further 776 square feet on the lower level, the house was substantially gutted and rebuilt. including a new 2-car garage. in 2022. This house was contemporary and of a high quality, but it was also more familiar in its finishes and styling. It still had its fair share of bling, while also suffering from Recessed Lighting Overkill (a pet peeve I wrote about in We Flip Burgers, Not Houses).
In MLS C01, Markham Street, Euclid Avenue, and Palmerston Boulevard – north of College Street – comprise a collection of merchant-class housing that has historically garnered higher prices than dwellings on other streets, including those located south of College Street, throughout the district over the past 35 years. College Street’s prominence as a top Toronto foodie destination helped sustain property values until the late 2000s, when the spotlight shifted to Ossington Avenue, which surged in popularity around 2009. After 2009, property values near Ossington began to spike substantially, setting new precedents as Toronto’s hot real estate market went into overdrive throughout the 2010s.
104 Argyle Avenue
Listed February 2023: $5,490,000
SOLD February 2023: $5,510,000
Located just west of Ossington Avenue, north of Queen Street West, near the epicentre of where Vogue officially named West Queen West the second-coolest neighbourhood in the world in September 2014, the original detached residence on a 27 x 129 foot lot with laneway access facing Osler Playground was purchased in June 2019 for $1,999,888. The dwelling was mostly knocked down and substantially renovated to become an exceptional residence designed by award-winning Batay-Csorba Architects.
With 3,581 square feet and 1,418 square feet below grade, this calibre 4-bedroom, 6.5-bath confection of high design was the second-most expensive sale posted in the history of MLS C01 at the time (it now ranks fifth as of this writing). However, the land registry shows this property was purchased a year earlier, in March 2022, for $6,600,000. How this came to be, or why the Sellers accepted a sum nearly $1,100,000 less a year later, is for curious minds to wonder, but it demonstrates that ‘market value’ is subject to change depending on the pool of Buyers active in the market at any given time.
Despite this property’s coveted status, location, significant square footage, and high design pedigree and workmanship, it was likely this sale that the two Shannons desperately considered comparable to their own offerings. Such is the case when you’re too subjective to be objective.
Whether it was ego or optimism, when the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates in March 2022, those of us who had navigated the 1989 Toronto bubble bursting, which I share in When Dreams Of Domesticity Became Nightmares: A Recollection Of The 1989 Toronto Housing Market Crash, instantly recognized the tides were turning. Unfortunately, I’m one of only 3% of the Toronto realtors active today who experienced that market correction. Which is to also say that any realtor who has been selling for 25 years or less is experiencing this market correction for the first time.
May I be of assistance?
Since 1989, I’ve steered my career through a real estate market crash and burn; survived a slow painful cross-country recession; completed an M.E.S. graduate degree from York University called ‘Planning Housing Environments’; executed the concept, sales & marketing of multiple new condo and vintage loft conversions; and guided hundreds of clients through the purchase and sale of hundreds of freehold and condominium dwellings across the original City of Toronto. From a gritty port industrial city into a glittering post-industrial global centre, I’ve navigated the ebbs and flows of a property market as a consistent Top Producer. And I remain as passionate about it today as when I started.
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