Real estate got off to a slow start in 2022, with home sales down 18.2 per cent compared to January 2021, and new listings remaining in very short supply.
Looking forward to the year ahead, TRREB predicts total home sales in the GTA will reach 110,000, representing a dip from 2021, but still a strong result in comparison to previous years. They also expect the average selling price for all home types combined to climb to $1,225,000 – an approximate increase of 12 per cent when compared to last year.
Here is the Toronto Real Estate Board’s analysis for January 2022, with graphics courtesy of Market Watch:
TORONTO, ONTARIO, February 3rd, 2022 – Demand for ownership housing remained very strong from a historic perspective in January 2022. At the same time, listings remained in short supply, resulting in tight market conditions and very strong year-over-year price growth.
There were 5,636 sales reported through the TRREB MLS® System in January 2022 – down by 18.2 per cent compared to 6,888 sales in January 2021. While sales were down substantially compared last year’s record result, the January 2022 result was the second best in history for the month. This result is in line with TRREB’s forecast for a strong sales result in 2022, but off the 2021 record.
New listings were down by a similar annual rate (-15.5 per cent) as sales. Because sales and new listings moved in relative lock step, active listings at the end of January amounted to 4,140 – down by 44 per cent to the lowest level in more than two decades.
The continuation of tight market conditions resulted in a 33.3 per cent annual increase in the MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark. Similarly, the average selling price was up by 28.6 per cent year-over-year to $1,242,793.
TRREB has also just released the 2022 Market Outlook & 2021 Year-In-Review Report. “The report includes survey results and research that will help us navigate 2022 and beyond. The findings will highlight the latest consumer polling on home buying intentions; joint research with the Toronto Region Board of Trade on the future of employment and work; plus an outlook for home sales, listings and pricing over the next year. This will be a must-read report for Members, consumers, housing market watchers, researchers and policymakers,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.
Looking forward, the outlook for 2022 is as follows: Total home sales reported through TRREB’s MLS® System in the GTA will reach 110,000, representing a dip from 2021, but still a strong result in comparison to previous years; and The average selling price for all home types combined is set to climb to $1,225,000, an approximate increase of 12 per cent when compared to last year.
The following points summarize TRREB’s outlook for 2022:
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- Total home sales reported through TRREB’s MLS® System in the GTA will reach 110,000,representing a dip from 2021, but still a strong result in comparison to previous years.
- The average selling price for all home types combined is set to climb to $1,225,000, an approximate increase of 12 per cent when compared to last year.
- In addition to labour market conditions and population growth, the prospect of multiple interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada this year will be an important factor impacting housing markets in 2022. While BoC tightening cycles have historically led to fewer transactions, it is important to remember that home buyers have recently been held to a much higher qualification standard under the OSFI stress test. This could mitigate the impact of higher contract mortgage rates moving forward.
“Immigration into Canada and the GTA is expected to be at or near record levels in 2022. All of thesepeople will require a place to live. On top of this, job creation in average to above-average income sectors is expected to remain strong, further buoying consumer confidence to make a large-ticket purchase of a home. Unfortunately, the supply of listings will remain constrained, sustaining strong competition between buyers and double-digit growth in selling prices,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.
“While home sales will remain strong historically, there are a few key factors that will see transactions slightly off last year’s record pace. First, higher borrowing costs in 2022 will see some households onthe margin of affordability temporarily put their purchase on hold. Second, after above-average per capita home sales in 2021, there will be some give-back in 2022, simply because the pool of ready buyers will be smaller. Finally, the perpetual lack of inventory in the GTA will preclude some willing buyers from getting a deal done – simply put: you can’t buy what’s not available for sale,” addedTRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.
If you’d like to see more in-depth figures – by housing type and/or geographical area – here’s the complete set of January 2022 TRREB Stats.
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