CIBC August Housing Forecast


CIBC’s World Market’s Assessment of the Canadian Housing Market by economist Benjamin Tal was just released yesterday, August 23rd, 2012, in which Tal  presents the hypothesis that immigration and demographics are two solid factors which will prevent the housing market from undergoing a precipitous decline in what he regards as a ‘cyclical correction’ in the market. Note he doesn’t deny an adjustment is imminent, but that whatever adjustment we experience shouldn’t be for the long term.

Here it is:

The one critical factor not fully addressed in the report which is more to my concern, is the potential oversupply of smaller units in high-rise point towers which are not appealing to the local market at large, whether for size, quality of construction, their fringe locations, or by their ubiquitous blandness. I write of the high-rise point towers that dominate the skyline these days, many of which the cranes still stand as construction nears completion.


I believe that the local market remains keen to buy, but they want special and unique spaces in vibrant neighbourhood village-like settings. Based on the demand by our Buyers, I don’t believe the market is poised to crash, unless all these speculator-driven cracker-jack boxes-in-the-sky flood the market and might us all.

Realistically it won’t be until mid-September, at the earliest, that we should be able to accurately gauge how the market is moving.

After a somewhat sleepy summer enduring heat waves, Olympic fever and the annual vacation exodus that Torontonians love to take, will we be stable?

Let’s see.

Stay tuned

~ Steven

Real Estate

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